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Numbers Don't Favor Coleman In Absentee Ballots

If Norm Coleman is to win the US Senate race, the yet uncounted absentee votes will need to break his way in larger numbers than they did in the votes counted so far. Coleman will need to overcome Franken's 49 vote lead. Based on already counted votes in each county, it would appear Franken's lead will widen rather than narrow.

A very rough statistical analysis by The UpTake of the absentee ballots in Minnesota's very tight US Senate race indicates Al Franken will probably pick up about 31 votes when the ballots are opened and counted on Saturday. The analysis was done by simply weighting the ballots in each county based upon the totals so far in each county. (See spreadsheet below). That analysis makes some big assumptions and does not consider factors of how absentee voters may be different than the rest of the population, but it indicates how hard it will be for Coleman to make up a 49 vote deficit.

Allocating Absentees By Previous Results
County	Ballots	% Coleman	% Franken	Coleman	Franken
Aitkin
Anoka	21	45.45	36.89	9.5445	7.7469
Becker				0	0
Beltrami	7	42.97	45.59	3.0079	3.1913
Benton	8	44.1	33.77	3.528	2.7016
Big Stone	1	40.59	42.74	0.4059	0.4274
Blue Earth	7	39.37	41.72	2.7559	2.9204
Brown				0	0
Carlton	3	33.27	51.91	0.9981	1.5573
Carver	2	54.67	28.59	1.0934	0.5718
Cass	9	47.4	36.29	4.266	3.2661
Chippewa				0	0
Chisago	1	47.23	33.74	0.4723	0.3374
Clay	28	45.2	41.87	12.656	11.7236
Clearwater				0	0
Cook				0	0
Cottonwood				0	0
Crow Wing	20	46.14	37.32	9.228	7.464
Dakota	112	45.87	38.1	51.3744	42.672
Dodge	1	47.13	33.42	0.4713	0.3342
Douglas				0	0
Faribault				0	0
Fillmore	4	42.87	41.59	1.7148	1.6636
Freeborn	7	38.36	43.41	2.6852	3.0387
Goodhue	4	43.52	36	1.7408	1.44
Grant	5	41.24	40.82	2.062	2.041
Hennepin	255	36.16	50.12	92.208	127.806
Houston	2	47.11	43.06	0.9422	0.8612
Hubbard	4	49.68	34.79	1.9872	1.3916
Isanti	1	47.96	32.88	0.4796	0.3288
Itasca	24	38.22	47.61	9.1728	11.4264
Jackson				0	0
Kanabec	6	44.32	35.23	2.6592	2.1138
Kandiyohi	0			0	0
Kittson				0	0
Koochiching	8	42.32	45.96	3.3856	3.6768
Lac Qui Parle				0	0
Lake	2	35.27	51.43	0.7054	1.0286
Lake Of The Woods				0	0
Le Sueur	5	42.19	35.16	2.1095	1.758
Lincoln	1	47.06	40.95	0.4706	0.4095
Lyon	1	48.25	34.96	0.4825	0.3496
Mahnomen				0	0
Marshall	1	49.29	37.14	0.4929	0.3714
Martin				0	0
Mcleod	14	47.94	28.97	6.7116	4.0558
Meeker	3	45.57	30.95	1.3671	0.9285
Mille Lacs	1	43.47	35.65	0.4347	0.3565
Morrison	1	46.91	32.53	0.4691	0.3253
Mower	12	35.96	47.8	4.3152	5.736
Murray				0	0
Nicollet	7	40.03	40.84	2.8021	2.8588
Nobles	0			0	0
Norman				0	0
Olmsted	61	46.87	37.93	28.5907	23.1373
Otter Tail	1	52.94	33.05	0.5294	0.3305
Pennington	3	48.07	38.54	1.4421	1.1562
Pine	1	39.63	41.91	0.3963	0.4191
Pipestone				0	0
Polk	5	48.58	39.13	2.429	1.9565
Pope				0	0
Ramsey	71	33.88	51.83	24.0548	36.7993
Red Lake				0	0
Redwood	3	46.95	31.63	1.4085	0.9489
Renville				0	0
Rice	6	38.38	43.53	2.3028	2.6118
Rock	1	54.27	35.74	0.5427	0.3574
Roseau	1	57.52	31.68	0.5752	0.3168
Scott	11	50.75	31.03	5.5825	3.4133
Sherburne	15	51.19	29.97	7.6785	4.4955
Sibley				0	0
St. Louis	101	32.44	54.61	32.7644	55.1561
Stearns	18	46.39	33.5	8.3502	6.03
Steele	7	44.22	33.52	3.0954	2.3464
Stevens	2	44.99	40.09	0.8998	0.8018
Swift	0			0	0
Todd				0	0
Traverse				0	0
Wabasha	1	41.93	37.73	0.4193	0.3773
Wadena	5	51.5	32.06	2.575	1.603
Waseca				0	0
Washington	30	46.9	37.17	14.07	11.151
Watonwan				0	0
Wilkin	1	53.73	31.81	0.5373	0.3181
Winona	1	41.55	46.83	0.4155	0.4683
Wright	17	50.59	28.62	8.6003	4.8654
Yellow Medicine	3	41.58	39.06	1.2474	1.1718
Totals	953			387.71	419.11